In April 2021, plug-in electric vehicles took an 80.1% market share in Norway, up from 69.6% in April 2020. The overall automobile volume has returned to seasonal norms, with 13,166 vehicles registered. The most recently sold all-electric vehicle, the Audi e-tron, is now on the verge of being overtaken by the new Volkswagen ID. 4.
April’s combined plugins result of 80.1% consisted of 54.9% Electric Battery (BEV) and 25.2% Plugin Hybrid (PHEV). The cumulative share of plugins for 2021 now stands at 81.5%, with BEVs dominating at 53.3%.
The share of the combustion-only powertrain for 2021 since the start of the year now stands at just 11.5%, a significant drop from the cumulative share of 20.3% a year ago, and will likely fall. below 10% for the whole of 2021:
The best-selling BEVs
With some brands delivering irregular monthly shipments, let’s go back and see which BEV models are most popular in Norway. year to date.
The Audi e-tron, with just under 800 deliveries added in April, still barely holds the top spot it has held for about a year. Now, however, its younger brother from the VW Group, the Volkswagen ID.4, is gaining volume much faster and is about to pass. With its first serious volume delivered in April, adding 1,802 units, the ID.4 seems to tend to inevitably take the lead since the start of the year by the end of next month:
The Tesla Model 3 was in a shipping trough in April, at just 7 units, compared to last month’s high tide surge of 2,169 units. Smoothing out those bumps, since the start of the year, the Model 3 is still neck and neck with the Audi e-tron, but will only see the rear of the Volkswagen ID.4 from now on, though the latter can maintain its recent healthy volumes. .
The brother of the ID.4, the Skoda ENYAQ, also based on the new VW MEB platform, is just starting to ship in Norway. It saw 334 initial units in April, already almost enough (prorated) to reach the top 10, and will grow from there. Expect it to be visible on the cumulative Top 10 list later this year.
The crossovers based on the Volkswagen Group’s MEB platform don’t stop there, however. The Audi Q4 e-tron (image below) is expected to start Norwegian deliveries in June. The new Audi takes the best luxury features of the current Audi e-tron, combined with the design, space and efficiency of the VW MEB platform, and offers them at a competitive price. In other words, it takes the best elements of Norway’s two best sellers, the e-tron and the ID.4, and combines them in a way that might just turn out to be the sweet spot for many consumers. Norwegian.
Overall, the VW MEB platform model team is expected to dominate in Norway this year. This is now clarified by Elon Musk, claiming that Tesla will only have limited European production of the Tesla Model Y from the Berlin Gigafactory production facility in 2021, a crossover that will undoubtedly be popular in Scandinavia (and elsewhere. in Europe) when it finally arrives. However, 2022 should see a good race between all of these compelling BEVs, which together will shut down the few remaining combustion vehicle sales in Norway.
What is the progress of the Norwegian car fleet?
In my last report on Norway, some commentators asked what the composition of the Norwegian vehicle fleet now looks like. With a plugin share of New Vehicle sales solidly above 80%, the fleet is obviously turning slowly but steadily for good. Turnover takes a long time, as vehicles can last for more than 15 years of use (or much longer in some cases), but the recovery in the turnover rate in Norway is just starting to be visible, especially if we press the X axis to accentuate the trend lines:
Note the slight increase in plugin slopes (green lines) in 2020, when Norway’s share of plugins in new sales was almost 75%. Over the next year or two, when new sales will almost grow entirely plugins, the fleet replacement rate will obviously accelerate a little further, and be more visible.
In a normal year for auto sales volume, sales of 100% plugins should approach a fleet replacement rate of 6% or 7% in Norway. It means, all other things being equal, around 50% of the Norwegian vehicle fleet will be plug-in by 2025 and around 80% by 2030.
But, as the operating costs of BEVs (fuel efficiency, longevity and low maintenance costs) improve even further, and fossil fuel vehicles face potentially higher disincentives to use (fuel tax). higher, annual taxes, road tolls, city center bans, etc.), the replacement rate may be higher than normal (i.e. other things may not be equal).
It should also be remembered that newer vehicles are generally much more driven than older vehicles, so the kilometers traveled in the fleet will transform even more quickly into electrical energy. Essentially, by 2030, the Norwegian passenger vehicle fleet can be expected to use only on the order of 10-20% of the fossil fuels that vehicles burned before the EV transition (and is heading rapidly towards almost zero).
With compelling new BEV models to come, the plugins market share in Norway is expected to grow from 75% last year to over 85% in 2021, possibly even reaching 90%. What do you think? Please let us know in the comments.